In the last few weeks of 2017, the bitcoin boom has risen to near-zealous levels. However, some investors and analysts believe that cryptocurrency will face even more pain in 2018.
According to interviews with few top investment analysts, the foreign media gave the following five forecasts for the 2018 digital currency:
1. More agencies will enter the cryptocurrency space
Michael Graham, an analyst at Canaccord Genuity, said: “Our institutional investors are very interested in learning more about cryptocurrencies and are closer to cryptocurrencies. One of our themes is that there will be more institutional investment by 2018 Enter the cryptocurrency market. ”
In addition, the number of bitcoin-related institutional-level investment products is on the rise.
In addition to CME and CBOE, which launched bitcoin futures in December 2017, global financial services companies Cantor Fitzgerald and Nasdaq are planning their derivatives. Analysts also expect regulators to approve a Bitcoin exchange in late 2018 or early 2019.
Nolan Bauerle, head of research at CoinDesk, said in an e-mail: “With the regulated futures market going public in 2017, this paved the way for the ETF’s approval in 2018. In fact, CBOE was in 2017 Applying for six crypto- currency ETFs by the end of the year is likely to go live in 2018. This will greatly facilitate institutional investors’ access to cryptocurrencies. ”
However, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission declined to comment.
2. The regulation will be more, bitcoin prices will decline
However, at the same time, regulators may try to limit the speculation of cryptocurrencies. In the past few months, as the risk of cryptocurrencies has risen, the Securities and Exchange Commission has warned investors more and more outspokenly. The commission worried about some companies and tokens related statements, which suspended the trading of some companies.
Graham, of Canaccord, said: “We will see regulatory enforcement actions.” He predicts that more regulation will result in significant price misalignment across the industry.
In the past 12 months, bitcoin prices soared more than 1,500 percentage points to nearly $ 16,200. However, the price is still about 18% below the record high of US $ 19,800 set by mid-December 2017. Meanwhile, according to CoinMarketCap, the smaller cryptocurrency prices have more than doubled in the past few weeks, bringing the market value of all digital currencies to more than $ 770 billion.
However, regulators’ actions may prevent such gains. In September 2017, China cracked down on digital currencies, with Bitcoin prices plunging more than $ 2,000.
Spencer Bogart, managing director and head of research at Blockchain Capital, a venture-capital firm, predicts that many cryptocurrencies are not ready to deal with a 25% monthly decline. Lex Sokolin, global strategy director at Autonomous Next, a financial research firm, predicts that the amount of cryptocurrency will nearly triple in 2018 to 500.
3. Encrypted currency fluctuations will increase in the future
For the future trend of cryptocurrencies, there have been some completely different views. Some analysts expect the volatility of Bitcoin in 2018 to be even greater.
Ari Paul, chief investment officer at BlockTower Capital, a cryptocurrency investment company, predicts that at some point in 2018 bitcoin can cost as much as $ 30,000, or as little as $ 4,000.
Some analysts believe bitcoin prices will eventually rise further. One reason behind this is that investors will bet on branching Bitcoin cash as the digital currency appears more divided.
On August 1, 2017, a new digital currency, known as bitcoin cash, was born in an incident called a “hard fork.” Michael Graham, an analyst at Canaccord Genuity, said: “We believe we can get more ‘hard forks’ in 2017 than in 2017. Ultimately, we think these hardcocks will be bitcoin’s worth and Short-term windward long-term headwind. ”
However, Bitcoin still faces many challenges, such as increasing transaction costs and speed.
4. Bitcoin is so popular that other cryptocurrencies will go up
Although bitcoin prices have stagnated in the past two weeks, small digital currencies such as Rwanda, Stellar and Waves have jumped to their largest cryptocurrencies.
Erik Voorhees, chief executive of digital asset exchange ShapeShift, said that, in contrast to Bitcoin’s dominance of the platform a year ago, about half the deals on the current platform are not about popular numbers at all currency.
Analysts also pointed out that bitcoin is the most mature digital currency and therefore often becomes a way for new investors to enter the cryptocurrency space.
5. Equity investors may have the opportunity to invest in digital currency-related IPOs
As people become more interested in digital currency, the value of participating in the business has reached billions of dollars. Coinbase, which leads the US cryptocurrency market, is worth as much as 1.6 billion U.S. dollars, indicating that it may seek an IPO.
Graham, an analyst at Canaccord Genuity, said: “I do think the public will see more encrypted companies own IPO in 2018 and an IPO for a broader blockchain company.”
However, just as stronger regulation in the United States has encouraged foreign blockchain development, the first IPO involving cryptocurrencies may not occur in the United States. Ryan Gilbert, a partner at Propel VC, said: “Such an IPO will first appear outside the United States.”
In any event, investors need to be cautious about those companies that announce cryptocurrency-related announcements and add “blockchains” to their names.