BTCCNY caught my attention after the China’s Treasury bond futures record drops today after Federal Reserve increased its core interest rates. The BTC against Chinese Renminbi hit highest 5517 on BTC China trading day before FOMC meeting. It is currently flickering at 5466.33 on sturdy buying backing. Bitcoin prices have gained very substantial returns this year, soaring more than 80% from $430 level to more than $780, advancing on a protracted bull channel from mid-2015.

Fundamental Outlook

China fundamental,
– Chinese short term weaknesses, economy is growing at its slowest annual pace in a quarter century
– China feared will tightening up its monetry policy
– China may increases interest rate to keep up
– Yuan could facing further devaluation as Fed hints on further rate bump next year.
– credit growth still a problem
– but economist expect a more modest China economy growth next year.
– major worries on economy is getting subdue.
– Trump factor is crucial subject especially on Sino-American.

Bitcoin fundamental,
– Bitcoin is enjoying a rally since August, firm buying interests
– benefits from India’s currency purge and China capital control
– pulling more interests as hedging currency
– Trump affect also helps Bitcoin as confident on fiat money flag
– bullish from analysts. Danish bank Saxo made a bold prediction that the price of bitcoin could continue to rise to over $2,100 over the course of 2017.
– but a lenghty holiday is approaching, this will causing sharp drop of liquidity
– evidently, plenty of profit-taking activities slowed down its upward

Before move on to technical, take quick view at BTCUSD(data from coinbase) trend.

The BTCUSD still on the verge of moving higher. Look set to pass $800 before year end.

Technical Overview,


BTCCNY Daily Chart

Daily Chart Showed the price is still way above 200 SMA. Currently It is contesting to get better of the price line at CNY5515 the highest level since January 2004. It is moving along inside a bullish trend line which commenced around mid-September. It is facing solid trend line resistance around 5535. Narrow consolidating on the lower band of the pattern. Overall, outlook still relatively bullish amid persistence profit-taking pulling it into more sideways to north flow.


BTCCNY 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour chart, we could loosely construct a wedge span forming from the start of the month of December. The wedge-shaped pattern was formed based on the few oversize tail rejection candles which no surprise followed by big price swells. At the time of writing, the price was just outside the wedge at 5455.05. But i would be more reserved on this possible brakeout. I suspect it might need a major surge to pass 5515 in order to confirm the further rally. Prices below that level will be in danger of fake breakout and driving the price to lower around 5367. If there is no another rejection, the price would be further pressed down and could be supported at around 5317. But a stronger support zone is around 5228. Outlook : Bullish

overall : positive buy on dips/rejections

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Remember: The author is a trader who is subject to all manner of error in judgement. Do your own research, and be prepared to take full responsibility for your own trades.



Please do your own due diligence before making any investment decision. This article should not serve as investment advice. This post is mainly as reference and tutorial for trading on possible cryptocurrency breakout.